Post-Covid-19 management of the natural capital will require a new framework hinged on explanatory power, empirical evidence, rationality, and simplicity.

Several models of the COVID-19 pandemic come up with diverse outcomes. Assumptions based on assumptions and simple numerical analyses of the models may reflect reality. Levy walk, a kind of random walk, may explain why a few super-spreaders are essential in understanding the transmissivity of the coronavirus.    

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Epidemics are always not amenable to modelling as our current experience amply demonstrates. A simple law of averages doesn't work here. The virus doesn't mix in a population uniformly. Out best-laid plans are frustrated by a few individuals and fervent religious groups.

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With COVID-19 entering its sixth month of existence, are we seeing the light at the end of the tunnel? As humans, we are often blind to the obvious and also blind to our blindness. That could be the reason to see the coronavirus as a living organism, which may have cost us valuable time in putting up a practical challenge. A virus cannot seek out a victim to infect, the victim as to get in its way. A mask could have prevented that on most occasions.

As the COVID-19 rampage continues, social distancing and lockdowns have become the norm. Apart from not being permanent solutions, these knee jerk actions could also crash the economy. Are there proven methods which could tame the pandemic without sending the economy into a death spiral?

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Oil and gas price plummets as the COVID-19 pandemic takes its toll. With OPEC+ split and depressed demand, it will not be a good going for the industry.  However, the petroleum industry refuses to engage with the war against the pandemic. 

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The novel coronavirus has impacted the natural resource industry, like any other industry, but also is having a high human cost. Should the natural resource industry be a mute spectator, or does it have a more active role to play? Pandemics of this sort usually originate from places where natural resources are produced and transformed. So it is also the industry’s responsibility to join hand with partners to see whether a vaccine could be developed and provided to the people rapidly.

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Can Artificial Intelligence (AI) help oil&gas gas and mining companies discover more oil&gas accumulations and mineral deposits? The AI we have today is the weak AI, which can make specific tasks more efficient. One area is in the interpretation of the vast amount of geophysical data, which is typically a slow and tedious process, brought with many errors. But helping out in exploration in a substantial manner will require the development of Artificial General Intelligence (ANI), or even better Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), which are not yet there.

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The oil&gas industry is investing significantly to improve exploration and production. Big tech companies have made their cloud and AI platforms available for these improvements. However, the tech employees are not keen to join the game, and a revolt is underway. Big oil and big tech are trying a assuage the feelings with a slew of new initiatives to support climate action. However, some oil&gas industry employees remain sceptical of climate change and are having revolts of their own to prevent professional associations from going out all out for climate action.    

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Megatrends such as urbanisation, climate change, ageing population, the rise of service-based industry and disruptive technologies may seem to have a little to do with natural resource use. But imagining where natural resource is headed to in 2030 or 2050 requires careful considerations to these and other megatrends. Otherwise, industries such as mining and oil&gas will see ground failing under their feet. 

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Resource development centres often create prefect storms for pandemics. The HIV/AIDS pandemic broke out during the mining boom of the 1920s in Kinshasa. Many such centres of rapid industrial growth are emerging in China, and that could be a reason why similar episodes are increasing there. Wuhan is one such place which has created the perfect storm for the 2019-nCov virus to emerge as the latest threat to human populations. Keeping the human, domestic and wild animal biomes in their boundaries are essential. Natural resource management has a significant role to play here.

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U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2020, which came out last week provides some useful pointers on where the energy transformation is headed. The highlight is the healthy growth of renewables, especially solar energy. However, natural gas will continue its march. The five years will be terrible for the coal industry, and a large number of coal plant retirements could happen until 2025, after which coal will stabilize. Nuclear also will see some withdrawals until 2025, after which no new plants will be constructed. 

Will the growth of renewable energy translate into significant carbon emissions? Unfortunately, this is not going to be the case. There will be some carbon emission reductions in the next five years, and then the emissions will surge back to the same levels as today by the year 2050. This surge is led by emissions from the industry and transport sectors. Retirements of nuclear plants are also not helping. Unless emissions from the industry and transportation sectors are addressed, the U.S. will stand to lose the carbon game.

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In this episode, we will have a look at the general apathy of governments to agree on ambitious emission control goals. However, the industry and investment community believe climate change is the highest risk. Finally, will also discuss what this holds for startups willing to enter the natural resource space.

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Australia is being ravaged by bushfire. In 2019, such fires were seen in the dryest to wettest and most cold places of the world. The blazes were very intense and could only worsen in the future. Our firefighting techniques have not improved in the past 100 years and could be inadequate to deal with such fires in future. More sustainable forest resource management will be required. These fires are making Australia's forest net carbon emitters for a long time and worsen the global warming, which in turn will fuel more fires. It is vicious positive feedback in play. Yet, Australia has an answer - its best-kept secret.

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In this episode of ResourceCast, we go deeper into the 12 fundamental principles of resource management:

1. Responsibility to the planet

2. Integrated and indivisible management of resources

3. Systems view

4. Social license to operate 

5. Full-life cycle view

6. Service orientation 

7. Comprehensive resource recovery

8. Circularity 

9. Zero-waste

10. Zero-harm

11. Hybridization

12. Continuous strengthening of core competencies and capabilities

In the first episode, we discuss the general structure of ResourceCast, which will consist various segments.

1. A view from 30,000 feet - Focus on the fundamental principles
2. Direct hit - A look of real life problems
3. The cut - A focus topic
4. The weakest link in the chain - A drill-down through 5 Ws
5. Leader talks - Introducing industry leaders
6. Perspectives - In and around us
7. The assets - Some essential resources 
8. Stretching the boundaries

Today, we also briefly discuss the fundamental principles of natural resource management.

ResourceCast is a natural resource industry podcast.

Here you can listen to the latest on how mining, energy, water and other natural resources based business are transforming around the world. We will discuss how from being the most hated and despised “extractive industries”, a new mindset is changing the face of the resource industry. How are they becoming more responsive to the needs of the people?