US energy 2050 - The said and the unsaid
U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2020, which came out last week provides some useful pointers on where the energy transformation is headed. The highlight is the healthy growth of renewables, especially solar energy. However, natural gas will continue its march. The five years will be terrible for the coal industry, and a large number of coal plant retirements could happen until 2025, after which coal will stabilize. Nuclear also will see some withdrawals until 2025, after which no new plants will be constructed.
Will the growth of renewable energy translate into significant carbon emissions? Unfortunately, this is not going to be the case. There will be some carbon emission reductions in the next five years, and then the emissions will surge back to the same levels as today by the year 2050. This surge is led by emissions from the industry and transport sectors. Retirements of nuclear plants are also not helping. Unless emissions from the industry and transportation sectors are addressed, the U.S. will stand to lose the carbon game.
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