This Happened Twice in 100 Years... Both Times, Stocks Fell 49%

Peter Schiff on why 86% of the S&P is already in a bear market, the 1973 and 2000 parallels, 5% Treasury yields, and new IRS emails on his bank.

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Market breadth has only been this bad twice in 100 years, and both times the S&P 500 fell nearly 50%.

Peter Schiff opens with the relentless rise in long-term yields: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.16%, the 30-year at 5.49%, and the five-year at 5.00%, while stocks shrug it off. Mortgages sit above 7% only because the Trump administration ordered Fannie and Freddie to buy, and Peter expects 8% regardless. Bond yields rose even as oil fell from $100 to $92, showing the bond market has decoupled from the Fed narrative. The S&P is 0.7% from a record, but the average stock is 19% below its high, 60% of stocks are in bear territory, and new lows outpaced new highs three to one. Peter compares this to January 1973 and early 2000, the only two precedents, both followed by roughly 49% declines. He also covers the Michigan sentiment drop to 48.1 and the hoarding psychology behind it, Bill Ackman's call to raise the inflation target, why rising yields are bullish for gold, and the Trump-Xi meeting that produced no commitments. The second half returns to Euro Pacific Bank: newly unredacted IRS emails reveal an MOU with OCIF and no answer when the IRS-CI chief asked what the bank did wrong, while the receiver has repaid 78 of roughly 3,500 customers in four years and paid himself over $850,000.

Chapters:

00:00 Breadth Crash Warning

00:59 Bond Yields Surge

04:40 Global Rates and Mortgages

07:37 Oil Link Breaks

11:01 Consumers and Hoarding

14:58 Markets Misread Gold

18:47 Hidden Bear Market Breadth

21:06 History Rhymes Again

23:21 Ackman and Inflation Target

29:15 China Summit and Tariffs

33:05 Bank Shutdown FOIA Fight

38:20 FOIA Fight With IRS

39:11 Settlement And New Disclosures

42:03 Press Conference Double Standard

43:46 Jim Lee Email Questions

47:10 MOU Proof Of Coordination

50:56 Unanswered Questions Expose Narrative

55:02 Publicity Stunt Motive

56:04 Portugal Freeze Fallout

57:23 Receivership Numbers Breakdown

01:04:40 Government Vs Free Market Rant

01:06:41 Congress Won't Act

01:07:41 Wrap Up And Investing Pitch

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Peter Schiff serves as Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, LLC (“EPAM”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. The views and opinions expressed are those of Mr. Schiff as of the date of recording and may change without notice. Certain statements concerning historical events and regulatory matters reflect Mr. Schiff’s interpretation of the facts and information available to him.

Market and investment commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. International investing involves additional risks, including currency, political, economic and regulatory risks.

For information regarding EPAM’s investment advisory services, please visit europac.com. Registration with the SEC does not imply a particular level of skill or training.

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