Oil near $100, copper at a record, and the Fed still says 2%. Why the bond market breaks before the stock market does.

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Oil near $100, copper at a record, and 65 straight months above 2%. Peter says the bond market breaks first.

Brent touched $99.50 and copper hit an all-time high, and Peter's point is that the Fed's 2% target was already unreachable when oil was falling. Sixty-five months above target, and now the inputs are rising again. PPI Thursday and CPI Friday could both come in hot, and if they do, the damage shows up in bonds before it shows up in stocks. The market is pricing roughly 60% odds of a hike next week. Peter doesn't think the Fed will do it, and thinks 25 basis points wouldn't matter if it did, since the market would immediately start pricing the next one.

The rest is the bill coming due elsewhere. China just posted a record trade surplus, with August exports up 25% year over year and exports to the US up 34%, which is what happens when tariffs price Americans out of the best deal rather than moving production home. Peter got the receipt himself: the courier billed him for the tariff, then billed him again to process it. Meanwhile the hyperscalers that used to park cash in Treasuries are borrowing from the same pool the government needs, at a moment when interest costs already run $1.2 trillion a year.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro

00:39 War Shock Fuels Commodities

02:15 Copper vs Gold Real Money

06:11 Iran War Drags On

21:31 Tariffs and Trade War Fallout

30:18 Producers vs Consumers

31:50 Tariffs Shift Trade

35:52 Why Trade Wars Fail

43:37 Nickels Beat Treasuries

50:59 Fed, Inflation, and Wrap-Up

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Peter Schiff on the fake jobs beat, Trump's trade ultimatum, yields at 2007 highs, a 162% tariff bill, and why the Fed is the last buyer.

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The government says 162,000 jobs is a boom. Peter Schiff says it's a miss, and the bond market agrees.

The August jobs report came in at 162,000 against a 55,000 consensus, and Peter Schiff walks through why the number is worse than it looks. The birth-death model supplied 74,000 of those jobs, 45% of the total, on the assumption that new businesses were hiring. More than a third of the rest were waiters and bartenders. JOLTS and ADP both pointed the other way, last month was revised down, and real wages are falling. Kevin Hassett called it a boom; by most measures the economy is weaker than the day Trump took over.

Then Trump raised the stakes. He declared that America deserves the lowest interest rates in the world, then threatened to terminate all trade with any surplus country if the Fed doesn't cut. Peter's answer: the United States has never been a worse credit risk than it is right now. The 10-year hit 4.81% and the 30-year 5.28%, the highest since 2007. Japan has sold its Treasury holdings down from $1.3 trillion to $1.1 trillion, everyone who was buying is now selling, and the Fed will end up the buyer of last resort, which means inflation.

Peter also covers the week's real data: the July trade deficit at $88.6 billion, the biggest since March 2025; the $283 part that cost him 162% of the tariff once FedEx added its fee; diesel at a record above $5.80; Lutnick on semiconductors and Bastiat's candlemakers; Waller's rate comments sending gold back above $4,400; and an update on TGold's coming gold debit and credit cards.

Chapters:

00:00 No Buyers Left

00:29 Back In Puerto Rico

00:47 Jobs Report Miss

05:36 Real Wages Falling

06:09 Waiters And Bartenders

08:00 JOLTS ADP Contradiction

09:10 Birth Death Model

10:23 Hassett Boom Claim

13:27 Trump Rate Demands

15:20 Worst Credit Risk Ever

17:24 Trump Trade Ultimatum

24:07 Bessent Kudlow Interview

27:27 Yields Hit 2007 Highs

28:24 Yen And Japan Selling

31:14 Oil Diesel Record

33:15 Stocks Gold Silver

39:16 Trade Deficit Widens

42:02 My 162% Tariff Bill

45:37 Lutnick Semiconductors

48:33 Bastiat Candlemakers

51:08 Waller Rate Comments

53:39 Gold Pullback Gift

54:03 TGold Cards Update

1:00:24 Bitcoin And EuroPac

1:02:12 Labor Day Sign Off

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Warsh talks tough, buybacks double, a military option surfaces, gold falls $140, and boat prices collapse 50%.

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The Treasury doubled its bond buybacks this week. Then the talk turned to a military option for yields.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spent his most anticipated speech of the year talking tough about inflation, and Peter Schiff explains why none of it matters. Warsh accepted responsibility for 65 straight months above the 2% target, then never once mentioned the $40 trillion national debt or the Treasury intervention running underneath him. Money supply is expanding at roughly 6% annualized since he took the job. He is talking about putting out the fire while pouring the gasoline.

Underneath the speech, the policy escalated. Treasury buybacks already doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion, with roughly a trillion in the general fund available to extend them, shortening the average maturity of the debt and leaving the government more exposed to the rate hikes markets are now pricing. And in a Fox News interview on that same intervention, a military option for lowering bond yields was raised.

Peter also covers the week's real data: gold down $140, silver reversing from nearly $71, a Chicago PMI collapse to 47.1 that was the biggest downside miss in eleven years, and a boat market where prices have fallen 50% and lenders are taking the keys, a Fed-made boom and bust he argues housing is about to repeat.

Chapters:

00:00 Inflation Firestorm

00:37 Boatcast Setup

01:02 Warsh Speech Breakdown

04:12 Debt And Twist Ignored

08:10 Forward Guidance Critique

11:19 Dual Mandate Tradeoffs

12:46 Money Supply Matters

13:56 Hawkish Talk And Markets

18:50 Trump Military Option

20:01 Canada Tariffs Fallout

27:53 Market Wrap Gold Bitcoin

31:46 Strategy Dilution Spiral

32:42 Dollar Yen Bonds Warning

34:11 Manufacturing Digital Shift

39:03 Boating Bubble Bust

45:28 Boat Costs Force Selling

48:13 West Marine Bankruptcy

53:02 Buyer Market Repos Risk

56:30 Boat Ownership Reality

57:09 Closing Politics Plug

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Peter Schiff breaks down the Treasury's panic move to rescue the bond market, the $40 trillion debt milestone, and gold's $185 reversal day.

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The Treasury just doubled its bond buybacks. Peter Schiff says that's the government admitting the bond market is broken.

On the same day the national debt topped $40 trillion, the Treasury announced it is doubling its long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion... buying the bonds everybody else is selling, and funding it by issuing more short-term debt. Peter calls it what it is: a panic move, a Hail Mary to suppress rising yields after the 30-year hit 5.3%, its highest in over 19 years. Refinancing debt locked in at a 3.44% average coupon with 4% T-bills makes no financial sense, which is exactly why it's happening... the government is scared, not stupid.

The market rendered its verdict immediately. Gold reversed off a $185 rally to close above $4,500, silver cleared $66, and the miners surged 8-12%, while hawkish FOMC minutes were shrugged off entirely. Peter explains why this Treasury version of Operation Twist forces the Fed to follow with real QE... a program that will have to dwarf 2008's... why Bitcoin's pop above $70,000 is built on hope, and why the housing data shows the panic is justified.

Chapters:

00:00 Treasury Panic Move

01:05 Bond Yields Hit New Highs

02:58 Debt Explosion Politics

07:00 Treasury Buyback Twist

10:23 QE Next And Fed Cornered

16:04 Hawkish Minutes Gold Surge

24:03 Markets React Unevenly

24:20 Dollar Drops Oil Jumps

25:08 Fed Inflation Bind

26:30 Debt Era Comparison

27:40 Jobs Data Media Spin

29:17 Bitcoin Versus Metals

31:19 Housing Slump Mortgages

33:59 Tariffs Canada Trade

37:50 Buybacks Won't Work

42:26 QE Addiction Ahead

44:34 Boat Update Farewell

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Peter Schiff on plunging retail sales, sticky inflation, the Fed's stealth QE, and why the world is now leaving the dollar standard.

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Retail sales just plunged, producer prices are still rising, and the Fed is quietly expanding its balance sheet again.

The July data tells the story the markets keep ignoring. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent, the biggest drop in over a year, and since those numbers are not adjusted for inflation, real spending fell even further. Consumer sentiment sank to 51 as households braced for 4.3 percent inflation, more than double the Fed's 2 percent target. Producer prices rose 4.7 percent year over year, and instead of rallying on the weak data, the bond market sold off to its lowest weekly close of the year, with the 30-year at 5.27 percent. Meanwhile the Fed expanded its balance sheet by more than 21 billion dollars in two weeks, with the national debt about 80 billion dollars away from 40 trillion.

Peter marks 55 years since Nixon closed the gold window and calls it what it was: a 100 percent default on America's creditors. His father Irwin testified against removing gold backing in 1968, and the 1970s proved him right. Now the sequel is underway. The world is going off the dollar standard the way America went off gold, and the next leg down in the American standard of living has already started. Gold near 4,400 dollars and silver above 66 are the market's verdict.

Chapters:

00:00 Middle Class Squeeze

01:01 PPI Breakdown

04:08 Fed Balance Sheet Surge

05:23 Stagflation Signals

08:28 Bond Market Warning

11:39 Greenspan and 1987 Echoes

14:48 Stocks vs Bonds Diverge

15:33 Gold Shines Bitcoin Slips

18:16 Bitcoin Bear Case

21:08 Iran Sanctions and Oil

26:30 Nixon Gold Standard Legacy

28:52 Inflation Math Reality

29:30 Video Plug Fiat Failure

30:19 Electric Catamaran Tour

34:30 Cruising Plans Tax Credit

37:02 Gold Standard Break Explained

48:09 Dollar Standard Ending

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A record $432B July deficit, $40 trillion in debt days away, gold above $4,400... last week's fireworks were just the opening act.

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The CPI came in tame. Hours later the Treasury reported a $432 billion July deficit... the worst single month in US history.

Peter breaks down why the benign 0.1% July CPI is an accounting illusion: the BLS compares monthly averages, so June's oil collapse masked July's crude rebound, and August is set up to run hot. The real inflation news came later that day from the Treasury: a record $432 billion July deficit, $1.8 trillion in just ten months, and a national debt now less than $150 billion from $40 trillion. Bigger deficits mean more pressure on the Fed to choose inflation, which is exactly why the bond market refused to rally on the "good" CPI number.

Gold holds above $4,400 and silver above $65 as heavy Asian buying signals the de-dollarization trade is back on, while Bitcoin sits dead at $63,500 and misses the entire rally. Peter also covers the yen back above 159 and the Fed's swap-line backdoor QE for Japan, both parties drifting left after the latest primaries, Trump family corruption from Truth Social premium access to Barron's $150 million, and the Iran endgame: no deal, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and a president claiming victory in a war America clearly lost.

Chapters:

00:00 Inflation Signals Not Prices

01:22 CPI Print And Market Bets

04:24 CPI Math Masks Energy Surge

10:37 Deficits The Real Inflation Driver

19:54 Gold Surge Debt And Yen QE

31:09 Radical Left Wins Primaries

32:00 Both Parties Shift Left

34:17 Trump Corruption Claims

37:51 Bitcoin Stalls vs Gold

44:13 Iran War Reality Check

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Peter Schiff breaks down July's negative jobs report, Japan's yen crisis, and the Fed's stealth QE bailout as gold and silver surge.

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Recording from his boat in Rhode Island, Peter Schiff covers a week that vindicated his forecasts. The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, with prior months revised down another 105,000 and labor force participation falling to 61.4%, a level unseen outside COVID lockdowns in 50 years. Full-time jobs have declined in six of the last seven months while wages lag inflation, confirming the stagflation Peter has long warned about. The bigger story is Japan: with the yen at a 40-year low and JGB yields at record highs, the US executed its first yen intervention since 1998, roughly ten times larger, using euros instead of dollars and blindsiding the ECB. The Fed also took Japan's Treasuries via repo and printed the dollars, a stealth form of quantitative easing that contradicts its inflation-fighting rhetoric. Markets got the message: gold jumped 7.8% to 4,341, silver surged 12.3% to 63.46 after holding above the old $50 ceiling, and GDX rocketed 22% in one week, all far outpacing Bitcoin's 3.7% gain. Peter argues the intervention is just the beginning, the Fed will not hike before the midterms, and a currency and sovereign debt crisis is approaching. He urges listeners to prepare with gold, silver, miners, and foreign stocks, and to understand the coming crisis is caused by government, not capitalism.

Chapters:

00:00 Fed Japan Bond Backstop

01:11 Back At Sea Intro

01:59 Week Ahead Jobs Japan

03:23 Stocks Metals Surge

06:23 Bitcoin Strategy Warning

09:15 Bonds Dollar Fed Odds

14:00 July Jobs Shock

15:33 Revisions Participation Drop

19:51 Wages Inflation Stagflation

24:09 Trump Ballroom Rant

26:49 Japan Crisis Tease

29:24 Japan Yen Breakdown

31:30 Debt Trap And Rates

32:23 Treasury Selling Threat

34:35 Fed And BOJ Coordination

36:08 Swap Line QE Explained

41:15 Euro Intervention Twist

44:29 Inflation Signals And Metals

47:51 Storm Warning Ahead

49:18 Blame Government Not Markets

52:07 Prepare And Spread The Word

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The Fed talked tough and did nothing. The 30-year hit a 20-year high. The Dow fell 1,100 points. Gold was the only thing left standing.

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The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly where they were before Kevin Warsh took over, despite a 30% market-priced chance of a hike and three FOMC members dissenting in favor of one. Peter Schiff breaks down a press conference where Warsh declared "no tolerance" for inflation above 2% while doing nothing about it, hiding behind the excuse that the Fed "doesn't have a magic wand." Nobody asked for magic, just for the Fed to use the tools it actually has: higher rates, a smaller balance sheet, slower money supply growth. Warsh delivered none of them, and Schiff argues he made the same choice as his predecessors. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed chose it again.

The markets rendered their verdict immediately. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.22%, its highest in roughly 20 years, the Dow fell 2.2% or about 1,100 points to close on the lows, and the Nasdaq 100 is now down over 3% on the week as the air keeps coming out of the AI bubble, with Meta down 10% after missing earnings and SanDisk off 30% in three days. Gold told the real story: it closed up $40 at 4,070 and never broke 4,000, because rising yields driven by a loss of confidence in the Fed are bullish for gold, not bearish. Schiff calls gold the last safe haven standing. He also covers consumer confidence at a five-year low, a $101.5 billion June trade deficit proving the tariffs accomplished nothing, and why Mamdani's government-run grocery stores will empty shelves, bankrupt private grocers in the poorest neighborhoods, and recreate Soviet bread lines in New York City.

Chapters:

00:00 Debt Bubble Reality

00:37 Fed Holds Rates Steady

03:34 Two Percent Target Doubts

16:05 Q&A Exposes Inaction

27:38 Markets React Bonds Stocks Gold

31:45 Yields and Gold Misread

35:02 Gold Safe Haven Case

37:40 Fed Fallout and Data

43:12 NYC Government Grocers

55:42 Capitalism and Wrap Up

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The yen just hit a 40-year low and Japan is trapped. Whether they hike or freeze, it ends the same way: the pin that pricks our bubble.

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Investors are far too complacent about risks that are now hiding in plain sight. The AI trade cracked this week: Alphabet fell 10% after announcing even higher CapEx, Oracle is down 41% on the year, Meta and Amazon fell, and Microsoft is nearly in a bear market. SpaceX now trades 49% below its post-IPO high with its float set to jump from 5% to 40% by year end, and Tesla dropped 18%, costing Elon Musk nearly $100 billion in a week. Peter Schiff compares the roughly three-quarters of a trillion dollars in annual AI CapEx to the dot-com build-out, where the early favorites went bankrupt and took their vendors down with them.

The bigger danger is Japan. The yen fell to a 40-year low against the dollar, the 30-year JGB yield hit an all-time high near 4%, and with debt above 200% of GDP and a policy rate still at just 1%, Japan is trapped. Whether the Bank of Japan finally hikes aggressively or stays timid, the result spills into the United States, potentially forcing the world's largest holder of US Treasuries to dump its $1.1 trillion position. Schiff calls Japan the pin that pricks the far bigger US bubble. Meanwhile the US 30-year yield hit a 20-year high of 5.16% on more than four times the debt of 2006, oil is up 30% in July guaranteeing a hotter CPI, and gold rose on the week even as bonds and stocks fell, with the miners signaling a bottom. He closes on why record-low jobless claims are meaningless in a gig economy and why Trump's new slave-labor tariffs are an unconstitutional tax on Americans.

Chapters:

00:00 Japan Sparks US Crisis

00:41 AI CapEx Reality Check

07:51 AI Bubble Parallels

13:03 Gold Miners Rebound

19:17 Oil Bonds Warning Signs

32:16 Japan Debt Rate Trap

34:36 Weak Yen Trade Deficits

37:22 Japan Creditor Status Slips

41:22 Two Japan Crisis Paths

44:26 US Vulnerability Dominoes

45:21 Unemployment Claims Hype

47:20 Why Claims Mislead

51:37 New Tariffs Legal Workaround

59:03 Wrap Up Subscribe Call

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Warsh admitted monetary policy caused inflation. Bessent thinks silver certificates still redeem at Fort Knox. And import prices are up 7.1%.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox viewers that old silver and gold certificates can still be redeemed at Fort Knox. Gold certificates were repudiated in 1933 and silver certificates in 1968. Peter Schiff argues that if the man who signs the currency does not know basic monetary history, there is no reason to trust his assurance that the gold in Fort Knox is all there.

Markets confirmed the AI bubble is deflating. SpaceX fell 13.25% on the week to close below $124, under its $135 IPO price, and anyone who bought the post-IPO high near $225 is down 45%. Only about 5% of the company trades today, but lockups expire through year end and take the float to roughly 40%, an eightfold increase in supply. Gold closed at $4,017 and silver at $55.83, which Schiff calls a head fake created by the false narrative that war is bad for gold.

The honest inflation numbers tell a different story than the CPI: import prices are up 7.1% year over year and export prices are up 10.2%, against a reported 3.5%. Kevin Warsh admitted in Senate testimony that monetary policy caused the inflation, then offered a plan that amounts to talking about it while the Fed's balance sheet grew another $7.4 billion. Schiff also covers Trump selling paid early access to market-moving posts and explosive new FOIA emails showing Euro Pacific Bank was shut down for publicity, with the Australian Tax Office driving the operation to protect a journalist facing his defamation suit.

Chapters:

00:00 Trump Posts Paywall

01:23 Market Week Wrap

07:42 Gold Silver War

09:52 Inflation Data Reality

23:30 Warsh Hearing Grifts

37:59 AI Jobs and Progress

40:22 Trump Post and Fox Fallout

44:05 FOIA Trail and Censorship Claims

50:31 Nine Fraud Bank Shutdown Emails

57:07 Operation Atlantis PR Exposed

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#PeterSchiffShow #FortKnox #Inflation

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In 1914 the Fed ran on 40 people and no computers. Today it takes 23,000. Fire them all and let AI do it... it can't do any worse.

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Kevin Warsh delivered his first congressional testimony as Fed Chair, and Peter Schiff breaks down a hearing where everyone discussed inflation while misdefining the term and ignoring their own role in causing it. June CPI came in at -0.4% versus the expected -0.1%, dropping year-over-year inflation to 3.5% — but the entire decline came from a temporary oil price drop that is already reversing as the Iran war reignites and oil climbs back 20% in July. Bond yields tell the real story: the 30-year is back near 5.1% and the 10-year near 4.6%, erasing nearly the entire post-CPI rally.

Schiff's biggest revelation from the hearing: the Fed employs 23,000 people to do a job that required just 40 when it opened in 1914 — with no computers — and argues the entire institution could be replaced by a single AI or abolished outright. He dismantles Warsh's claim of "regime change" at the Fed as being as fake as regime change in Iran, exposes the redefinition of "price stability" to mean prices that rise just slowly enough that people stop complaining, and shows how the 2% target was always a lie invented to justify inflation. He covers Warsh admitting inflation is a tax while planning to keep levying it, the court throwing out Trump's self-negotiated IRS settlement that granted his family immunity, and the AI CapEx bubble turning tech's biggest cash generators into massive borrowers that will break the bond market.

Chapters:

00:00 AI Spending Arms Race

01:08 Markets Brace for CPI

06:07 CPI Surprise and Gold Whipsaw

07:34 Oil Driven Inflation Mirage

11:40 What Inflation Really Means

14:11 Congress and Fed Share Blame

17:58 Fed Headcount Shock

22:32 Two Percent Target Myth

27:05 Regime Change and Price Stability

33:40 Day One Recap Continues

34:09 Grow My X Account

35:13 Congress Inflation Theater

36:06 Trump Grift Claims

37:30 IRS Settlement Outrage

39:51 Rates Versus Balance Sheet

41:08 Who Wins Low Rates

43:46 Fed And Black Workers

49:09 AI Bubble Warning

51:15 Hyperscalers Debt Spiral

55:38 Bond Market Breaking Point

58:16 Strategy Stock Dilution

01:00:30 Bitcoin Levels And Regrets

01:01:30 Subscribe And Sign Off

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A new housing law just passed that guarantees prices go higher. Bonds are breaking. And every bank bullish on Bitcoin refuses to buy Stretch.

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The Iran peace deal collapsed and the war is back on, yet US stock markets barely reacted — the AI bubble powering tech kept the S&P and Nasdaq positive while gold and silver sold off, with gold closing at $4,019 and silver falling 3.5% below $60. Bond yields climbed back to cycle highs with the 10-year at 4.56% and the 30-year at 5.06%, and Peter Schiff sees a major breakdown ahead that will hit stocks, housing, and crypto simultaneously.

The 21st Century Road to Housing Bill became law without Trump's signature, and Schiff argues it will make housing worse, not better. Nine decades of government housing policy — every program sold as making homes more affordable — have produced the least affordable housing in American history, because subsidizing demand raises prices and the money ends up in sellers' pockets. Trump has openly said he wants home prices to rise, in the middle of an affordability crisis. Meanwhile SpaceX fell 36% from its highs in under two weeks with every open-market buyer underwater and lockup expirations still ahead. Every Wall Street firm covering Bitcoin is bullish — Citi at $82K, Standard Chartered at $100K, Bernstein at $150K, JP Morgan at $170K — yet not one is buying Stretch at $87.48, where a 13.7% yield proves the market doesn't believe Bitcoin can appreciate 12% a year. They don't believe their own forecasts.

Chapters:

00:00 Markets Defy Bad News

01:38 War Tensions and Metals

05:11 Bond Yields Warning Signs

06:57 AI Bubble and IPO Mania

11:42 Bitcoin Hype and Wall Street

17:07 Dollar Flat Oil Rising

18:09 Housing Bill Political Fight

19:54 Affordability Crisis Explained

24:16 How Subsidies Inflate Prices

32:03 Bubble Collateral Trap

32:58 Jobs Report Media Spin

34:40 Housing Supply Not Subsidies

37:20 Save America Act Debate

41:25 Voting Rights Republic Critique

52:49 Democracy Incentives Corruption

57:12 Two Party No Choice

58:42 Podcast Wrap Up

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Iran deal dead. DOGE dead. Saylor selling at a loss. Medieval serfs kept more of their income than you do. I warned you about all of it.

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The Iran peace deal collapsed and the war is back on, with Trump acknowledging he was "two weeks from a depression" when he agreed to the MOU — a confession Peter Schiff says handed Iran all the leverage. Oil jumped 6% to $75, but the real story is bond yields: the 10-year hit 4.58% and the 30-year 5.07% — nearly at cycle highs despite oil being 25% below its peak, proving the debt, not the war, is driving yields higher.

FOMC minutes revealed that 9 of 13 members now support rate hikes after zero did just 90 days ago — theatrics Schiff says Warsh is orchestrating to appear hawkish without ever delivering. The May goods trade deficit exploded to $106.5 billion despite Trump's tariffs, continuing the pattern from his first term. DOGE was officially shut down with zero spending cuts achieved. Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin at a $15,000 per coin loss while Stretch sank to $86, and Trump's new savings accounts give kids $1,000 in borrowed money they'll repay through inflation. Schiff closes by noting that medieval serfs kept 75% of their output — more than the average American keeps today — making modern taxpayers lower in status than feudal peasants.

Chapters:

00:00 Freedom Versus Slavery

00:46 Iran Deal Collapses

05:04 Markets React to War

07:15 Oil Bonds and AI Bubble

16:17 Fed Minutes Rate Hike Theater

21:28 Tariffs Inflation Excuses

26:10 Real Rates and Debt Trap

27:41 Trade Deficit Reality Check

30:03 AI Threat to Services Surplus

32:32 Democracy Deficits and Rights

34:59 Rights And Healthcare

36:28 Housing And Free Markets

40:08 Tax Cuts And Wealth Theft

45:55 Taxes And Modern Slavery

48:25 DOGE Shutdown And Bitcoin Crash

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Saylor authorized $1.25B in Bitcoin sales. 514K full-time jobs vanished. Trump made $2.2B selling access. 250 years later, we need another revolution.

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The June jobs report came in at 57,000 — half of the lowest estimate — with May revised down from 172,000 to 129,000. Full-time employment collapsed by 514,000 in a single month, bringing total full-time job losses since Trump took office to 2.24 million. The labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5% as 700,000 workers simply gave up, and manufacturing has lost 73,000 jobs despite Trump's tariff promises.

Michael Saylor officially surrendered the "never sell Bitcoin" thesis, establishing a "Bitcoin monetization fund" authorizing up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to maintain dollar reserves, buy back common stock, and repurchase Stretch preferreds trading at $87.80. He raised the Stretch dividend to 12% with mandatory increases ahead. Peter Schiff argues this transforms Strategy from the market's biggest buyer into its biggest seller, removing the bid that underpinned Bitcoin's price. Trump's financial disclosure revealed $2.2 billion in income — $1.4 billion from meme coins and tokens alone — while Mar-a-Lago membership hit $1 million and the Executive Club charges $500,000 for a restaurant seat next to cabinet members. Peter closes with a 250th Independence Day reflection, arguing Americans today face more tyranny than the colonists ever did under King George, and that the revolution we need now must happen at the ballot box.

Chapters:

00:00 Holiday Intro and July 4th Tease

00:37 Jobs Report Shock and Revisions

03:43 Full-Time Jobs Slide and Tariff Reality

07:29 Fed Rate Hike Theater and Gold Bounce

16:28 Bitcoin Strategy Turns Seller

29:57 Meme Coins as Bribes

31:09 Paying for Trump Access

34:26 Debt Gimmicks and Deficits

35:38 Independence Day and Founding Ideals

45:45 Modern Tyranny and Peaceful Revolution

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Stretch hit $71 intraday. Strategy down 85% from peak. The first lawsuit just landed. And CNBC has gone completely silent.

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The Strategy death spiral accelerated dramatically this week. Stretch preferred stock plunged 18% to close at $79 after hitting an intraday low of $71 — a 29% loss from par that wiped out more than two years of dividend income in weeks. Strategy common stock crashed 30% in a single week and is now down 85% from its peak, trading at a massive discount to its Bitcoin NAV. The first class action lawsuit was filed against Strategy, and Schiff expects tens of billions in total legal liability from both Stretch and common equity holders.

Saylor continued selling common stock to buy Bitcoin despite each purchase destroying shareholder value — diluting Bitcoin per share at the current discount. Schiff argues this is done solely to maintain the illusion that Strategy is still a buyer, propping up Bitcoin's price at shareholders' expense. Bitcoin fell 8.3% to below $60,000 but is only the beginning — with Strategy sidelined as a buyer and ETF holders sitting on losses, there is no marginal buyer left. Gold traded below $4,000 and silver dropped to $56 intraday before recovering, but Schiff sees this as the likely bottom of the correction and the buying opportunity of the cycle. Alan Greenspan died at 100, and Schiff eulogized him as the architect of modern monetary inflation who proved that even a gold bug will choose inflation when given the power of the printing press.

Chapters:

00:00 Death Spiral Warning

01:50 Stretch Ponzi Explained

09:36 Why It Must Collapse

18:41 This Week’s Crash Data

28:57 Lawsuits and Market Fallout

33:14 Gold and Silver Bottoming

34:43 Fed Hype and Inflation Reality

39:11 Greenspan Legacy and Gold Signal

43:21 Dump Crypto Buy Metals

52:43 Ford Wage Myth and Wrap Up

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Iran's regime survived, got $300B, and we reopened what we closed. Adam Schiff wants to steal Musk's trillion. Japan is about to blow.

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The Iran MOU is being celebrated as a great victory, but Peter Schiff argues it achieved nothing more than returning to pre-war conditions: no fighting and the Strait of Hormuz open — both of which were true before the war started. Iran's regime survived, got immediate sanctions relief, access to a $300 billion investment fund, and frozen assets returned. The only concession is a promise not to develop nuclear weapons — the same promise they were making before the war that Trump said wasn't good enough.

Schiff dismantles Adam Schiff's viral video calling for confiscation of Elon Musk's trillion-dollar wealth, showing that dumping that much stock would crash the price to a fraction of its value, destroy two companies, eliminate the incentive for future entrepreneurs, and give each household a one-time $7,500 check they'd spend in a week — the communist promise that has failed every time it's been tried. California's billionaire wealth tax made the ballot, threatening a 5% annual levy that would trigger a mass exodus. Meanwhile, Japan's debt crisis is accelerating with the yen breaking down past 160, 10-year JGBs at 2.65%, and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 250% — at 4% interest rates, two-thirds of Japanese tax revenue would go to interest alone. Schiff calls it a preview of America's future.

Chapters:

00:00 Crisis Without a Plan

00:48 Father’s Day Intro

02:21 Iran MOU Reality Check

09:40 Who Really Wins the Deal

17:10 Wealth Inequality and Billionaire Taxes

31:16 Why Capital Matters

32:29 Panama Wealth Conference

33:47 Schiff vs Billionaires

35:00 Confiscation Fallout

42:43 Japan Yen Crisis

50:58 Gold Fed Reality Check

54:23 Accountability and Wrap Up

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Warsh set up 5 task forces to study inflation. You only study a problem when you don't want to solve it. Same game, new players.

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Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish surprise — rates held at 3.5-3.75% unanimously, forward guidance was eliminated, and dot plots now project two rate hikes by year-end. But Peter Schiff argues it's all theater. Instead of actually fighting inflation, Warsh announced five new task forces to "study" the Fed's balance sheet, communications, data sources, jobs, and inflation itself — the classic government move of establishing committees to avoid solving problems.

Warsh acknowledged inflation is a choice, and Schiff agrees — the Fed has chosen inflation over the alternative of crashing markets and forcing fiscal responsibility since the Greenspan era. The question is whether Warsh will break that tradition when push comes to shove. Schiff says no: Trump won't tolerate a bear market, the Treasury Secretary is having weekly breakfasts with the Fed Chair, and the political pressure to print will overwhelm any hawkish posturing. Meanwhile, Strategy's death spiral accelerated with Stretch falling to $89 — wiping out the entire annual yield in one month — while Saylor continues diluting common shareholders to fund dividends he can't sustain. SpaceX soared past $3 trillion on a 4% float, sucking speculative capital away from crypto and accelerating Bitcoin's decline to $64,000.

Chapters:

00:00 Warsh Shocks Markets

00:45 Rates Hold Steady

01:26 Trump Versus Powell

03:42 Shortest Fed Statement

06:01 Ample Reserves Contradiction

07:13 Five Task Forces Announced

32:18 Term Insurance Not Investing

33:40 Fed Task Forces Skepticism

39:56 Inflation Tax And Politics

44:37 SpaceX IPO Mania

47:23 Bitcoin Strategy Death Spiral

55:37 Gold Silver Buy The Dip

56:29 Same Fed Same Game Wrap Up

58:29 Closing And Follow Me

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Musk is worth $1 trillion with zero income. We're spending $1.6 trillion on interest. CPI is on pace for 6.2%. This is the peak of the bubble.

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SpaceX debuted as the biggest IPO in history, raising $75 billion at a $1.8 trillion valuation before closing above $2 trillion — making Elon Musk the first person worth $1 trillion. Peter Schiff puts this in perspective: JD Rockefeller, the previous richest American ever adjusted for inflation, earned the equivalent of $2 billion per year in actual income from Standard Oil. Musk has essentially zero income — SpaceX loses money and trades at 100x revenue — making his trillion-dollar net worth entirely a function of bubble valuations driven by decades of monetary excess.

Meanwhile, the May federal deficit exploded 32% year-over-year to $293 billion, with interest expense surging 44% to $133 billion in a single month — $1.6 trillion annualized, consuming 30% of all tax revenue. That's the entire federal budget from 1997 spent on interest alone. CPI rose 0.5% in May, putting 2026 on pace for 6.2% annual inflation — the highest since 2022 and potentially headed for 1981 levels. PPI came in at 1.1% for the second straight month, annualizing to 14%. Gold successfully retested its March low at $4,040 before recovering to $4,218, with mining stocks posting a positive divergence despite metal weakness. The Strategy death spiral deepened as Saylor diluted common shareholders to buy Bitcoin, destroying the "Bitcoin yield" narrative he built the company on.

Chapters:

00:00 Cold Open and Intro

01:23 SpaceX IPO Mania

03:18 Musk vs Rockefeller Wealth

06:31 Bubble Valuations Explained

09:59 Markets Week and Metals Drop

11:47 Gold Retest and War Narrative

17:20 Deficits and Interest Time Bomb

26:30 Inflation Data and Fed Boxed In

37:43 Other Markets Crypto and Wrap Up

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Saylor sold Bitcoin for the first time, Stretch hit $90, and the self-perpetuating death spiral I've been warning about just started.

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The tech wreck Peter Schiff has been warning about may have finally started. Bitcoin plunged 16% on the week to below $60,000, wiping out all post-election gains and pushing Strategy's 840,000 Bitcoin position $12 billion underwater. Stretch preferred stock fell to $90, triggering a potential death spiral: Saylor must either raise the dividend to prop the price back up — burning through his already depleted cash reserves faster — or watch holders flee, which craters both Stretch and Strategy, forcing the liquidation of all 840,000 Bitcoin at fire-sale prices.

Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin this week — the first sale ever — and Schiff argues this was a warning shot, not a one-off. The Nasdaq dropped 4.6% on Friday after a jobs report that showed 172,000 jobs created, 158,000 of which came from the birth-death model alone. Tech layoffs hit pandemic-era highs as companies redirect payroll savings into AI CapEx. Meanwhile, Trump valued Fannie and Freddie at a trillion dollars — a fiction Schiff dismantles, since the companies' mortgage guarantees are liabilities, not assets. Gold dropped 3.3% and silver fell 8.7% on algorithmic selling, but Schiff calls it the buying opportunity of the year as every macro force — collapsing real rates, forced Fed money printing, and the flight from risk assets — points to precious metals.

Chapters:

00:00 Death Spiral Warning

00:34 Market Turbulence Setup

01:43 Jobs Report Reality Check

08:51 AI Bubble Funding Crunch

17:26 Crypto Crash and Strategy Unwind

28:19 Crypto Treasury Unraveling

29:09 Ethereum Leverage Warning

32:56 Gold Silver Safe Haven

34:57 Bitcoin Down Year Math

43:07 Fannie Freddie Valuation Myth

50:47 Dollar Stress Value Rotation Wrap

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The US needs to borrow $20 trillion this year. Saylor just blew 60% of his cash paying off 0% debt early. The dominoes are falling.

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Donald Trump spent Memorial Day weekend claiming an Iran deal was 90% done — oil dropped $10 to below $90, but bond yields barely moved, with the 10-year still at 4.5% and the 30-year above 5%. Peter Schiff argues the bond market is telling the real story: with $13 trillion in debt maturing this year plus $3 trillion in new borrowing, the US needs to convince creditors to roll over nearly $20 trillion — an amount without historical precedent.

The AI CapEx bubble is now consuming a trillion dollars a year, funded by layoffs and foregone investment in actual manufacturing. Schiff compares it to dot-com: the technology is real but the stocks are wildly overvalued and most will go to zero when rising interest rates prick the bubble. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor burned over 60% of Strategy's cash reserves paying off zero-interest convertible notes three years early — a move Schiff says was forced by behind-the-scenes pressure, not financial genius. Elizabeth Warren accidentally made the best case against payroll taxes by pointing out that companies are incentivized to replace workers with AI because hiring people is taxed while buying computers isn't — though her solution is more taxes, not fewer.

Chapters:

00:00 - Intro

00:53 - Iran War & Market Reaction

06:47 - Bond Market & The Debt Crisis

14:25 - Ad Break: Ethos

15:47 - The AI CapEx Bubble

26:23 - Gold, Silver & Mining Stocks

29:11 - IRS Lawsuit & Bank Documentary

32:12 - Ad Break: Rockwell Automation

33:35 - Elizabeth Warren's AI Tax Proposal

47:28 - Strategy, Bitcoin & The Coming Bust

57:25 - Tokenized Gold vs Bitcoin

58:42 - Summer Sign-Off & 250th Anniversary

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