Peter Schiff on record bond yields, a 12-year low in consumer confidence, the end of the 40-year refi era, and why gold is the last safe haven.

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Bond yields hit new highs on weak data, consumer confidence sank to a 12-year low, and Peter says the end game has arrived.

The 30-year Treasury touched 5.62% and the 10-year closed at 5.26%, two weeks after 5% was supposed to be the ceiling. What makes this week different is that bonds sold off on bad news: consumer confidence collapsed to 81.9, the lowest in 12 years and below the depths of the pandemic, job openings missed, and yields rose anyway. Peter's warning is direct: if Friday's jobs number is weak and bonds still fall, the orderly grind lower becomes a crash. Gold's $170 drop is the market getting this backwards. Money leaving bonds ends up in gold, the last safe haven standing.

The bigger story is housing. America is now in the worst quadrant, high debt and high rates, which it has never lived through. For 40 years mortgage rates only fell, from 18% in 1981 to 2.65% in 2021, and homeowners rode that wave with serial cash-out refis that turned the house into an ATM. At 7.4% and headed past 8%, that era is over: no more refis, no cash out, no wealth effect, with homes at five times income and down payments at 13.8%. Fannie and Freddie are down 75% while the government buys more mortgage bonds. Neither party will name a cut. Every crisis Peter has warned about is converging, and he says to get your plan B in order.

Chapters:

00:00 Bond Crash Warning

01:02 Yields Surge and Mortgages

02:59 Gold Dip and Safe Haven

07:11 Weak Data Ignored

13:21 Housing Market Cracks

14:48 Password Security Ad

16:00 High Debt High Rates Era

19:17 Housing Bubble Math

23:56 Refi Boom Ends

28:24 Home Prices Next Drop

31:30 Noom Weight Loss Pitch

33:07 GSE Stocks Get Crushed

35:50 Trump Hype And Dump

39:39 PSA Or Campaign Ad

42:41 Deficits Nobody Will Cut

47:59 Affordability Promises Backfire

50:08 Socialism Messaging Trap

52:12 AI Hope Versus Debt Crisis

56:02 Fed Out Of Tricks

56:43 Prepare For The Storm

57:28 Wrap Up And Plan B

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Peter Schiff on why 86% of the S&P is already in a bear market, the 1973 and 2000 parallels, 5% Treasury yields, and new IRS emails on his bank.

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Market breadth has only been this bad twice in 100 years, and both times the S&P 500 fell nearly 50%.

Peter Schiff opens with the relentless rise in long-term yields: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.16%, the 30-year at 5.49%, and the five-year at 5.00%, while stocks shrug it off. Mortgages sit above 7% only because the Trump administration ordered Fannie and Freddie to buy, and Peter expects 8% regardless. Bond yields rose even as oil fell from $100 to $92, showing the bond market has decoupled from the Fed narrative. The S&P is 0.7% from a record, but the average stock is 19% below its high, 60% of stocks are in bear territory, and new lows outpaced new highs three to one. Peter compares this to January 1973 and early 2000, the only two precedents, both followed by roughly 49% declines. He also covers the Michigan sentiment drop to 48.1 and the hoarding psychology behind it, Bill Ackman's call to raise the inflation target, why rising yields are bullish for gold, and the Trump-Xi meeting that produced no commitments. The second half returns to Euro Pacific Bank: newly unredacted IRS emails reveal an MOU with OCIF and no answer when the IRS-CI chief asked what the bank did wrong, while the receiver has repaid 78 of roughly 3,500 customers in four years and paid himself over $850,000.

Chapters:

00:00 Breadth Crash Warning

00:59 Bond Yields Surge

04:40 Global Rates and Mortgages

07:37 Oil Link Breaks

11:01 Consumers and Hoarding

14:58 Markets Misread Gold

18:47 Hidden Bear Market Breadth

21:06 History Rhymes Again

23:21 Ackman and Inflation Target

29:15 China Summit and Tariffs

33:05 Bank Shutdown FOIA Fight

38:20 FOIA Fight With IRS

39:11 Settlement And New Disclosures

42:03 Press Conference Double Standard

43:46 Jim Lee Email Questions

47:10 MOU Proof Of Coordination

50:56 Unanswered Questions Expose Narrative

55:02 Publicity Stunt Motive

56:04 Portugal Freeze Fallout

57:23 Receivership Numbers Breakdown

01:04:40 Government Vs Free Market Rant

01:06:41 Congress Won't Act

01:07:41 Wrap Up And Investing Pitch

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Peter Schiff serves as Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, LLC (“EPAM”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. The views and opinions expressed are those of Mr. Schiff as of the date of recording and may change without notice. Certain statements concerning historical events and regulatory matters reflect Mr. Schiff’s interpretation of the facts and information available to him.

Market and investment commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. International investing involves additional risks, including currency, political, economic and regulatory risks.

For information regarding EPAM’s investment advisory services, please visit europac.com. Registration with the SEC does not imply a particular level of skill or training.

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Peter Schiff on 22-year high yields, record diesel, McDonald's inflation warning, and Trump's claim he told Warsh how to vote.

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Peter Schiff reviews the rise in Treasury yields to multi-decade highs and what 5% rates would mean for interest on the $40 trillion national debt. He opens with a comment Donald Trump made after the Fed's 25 basis point hike: that he told Kevin Warsh he "might as well vote with the board." Peter argues that either Trump is lying or, if the conversation happened, the Fed chairman is clearing his votes with the president, and that Warsh should be asked directly at the next press conference.

He then turns to the bond market. The five-year auction cleared at 5.03%, the highest in just over 20 years; the 30-year reached 5.41%, a 22-year high, and the 10-year hit 5.12%. He expects the 10/30 spread, now under 30 basis points, to widen back toward 50 or more, and suggests shorting the 30-year against the 10-year. If the government pays 5% on $40 trillion, interest would run $2 trillion a year, about 35% of tax revenue and more than Social Security, with the debt growing by more than $3 trillion a year. He says stock investors still assume yields are near a top.

McDonald's stock fell about 5% after its CEO said inflation would stay elevated for "many more years," which Peter contrasts with Warsh's claim that expectations are anchored at 2%. He agrees with Warsh that growth does not cause inflation; loose monetary policy does.

Diesel set another record above $6.50 a gallon, near $10 in California. Peter argues a diesel export ban would cut production, and that drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve leaves nothing for a real emergency.

On the midterms, he notes Democrats are now 65% favorites to take the Senate, with cost of living the top issue, and blames Trump rather than Biden for inflation, while the Gulf conflict looks to be worsening. He criticizes the White House for pulling credentials from CNN, Politico and MS Now, recounts Trump's reaction to his Fox & Friends appearance, and discusses California's lawsuit against Trump Media over selling early access to Trump's posts for $50,000 to $100,000 a month, which he calls insider information.

Peter closes with his Schiff Sovereign Plan B conference in Panama, which drew 130 to 140 attendees, and the story of his grandparents arriving through Ellis Island in 1902 and 1903 with no paperwork. His argument: the problem is not immigrants but the welfare state, and listeners should get their financial house in order, including gold, silver and TGold.

Chapters:

00:00 Diesel Hits Record Highs

00:52 Back From Panama Update

03:19 Trump Fed Comment Fallout

09:34 Treasury Yields Break 5%

12:42 Debt Interest Disaster Math

17:30 McDonalds Warns Inflation Years

22:20 Diesel Export Ban And SPR Risks

27:23 Midterms Senate Odds Shift

30:40 War And Media Crackdown Concerns

31:38 Press Ban Fallout

33:18 Fake News Double Standard

33:38 Fox Interview Backlash

35:54 Truth Social Insider Edge

37:12 Market Moving Posts Explained

41:13 GOP Hypocrisy Warning

43:06 Panama Plan B Conference

45:27 Why Panama Appeals

47:40 Gilded Age Tariff Myth

48:45 Open Immigration Then

55:21 Welfare State Border Reality

59:23 Plan B Portfolio Prep

59:51 Signing Off Anniversary

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The Fed hiked a quarter point. Peter explains why it will not stop the bond market, the dollar, or what is already coming for housing.

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The Fed finally hiked. Peter says the quarter point changes nothing about what is already in motion.

The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 percent, a 90 percent probability going in and a unanimous vote coming out. Peter's read is that none of that signals resolve. The Fed did not hike because it wanted to. Months of tough talk had stopped working, the bond market had called the bluff, and the committee was left with a put-up-or-shut-up moment it could not dodge. So it did the smallest thing available, and Kevin Warsh gave the shortest press conference of his tenure on the way out.

A quarter point does not touch inflation heading for a four handle, not with oil above 100 dollars and diesel at record highs. The reason the Fed will not do more is not caution, it is capacity. A hike large enough to break inflation would break the economy and the Treasury's ability to fund itself.

The market understood immediately. The Dow closed down roughly 600 points after being green before the announcement, and the 10-year Treasury pushed back above 5 percent, which Peter calls a stepping stone to 6. He also covers Trump's demand for sub-1 percent rates, Scott Bessent's testimony, why 8 percent mortgages are coming, and why he expects gold to recover from this selloff quickly.

Chapters:

00:00 Fed Hikes Under Pressure

00:33 Markets Priced In the Move

03:46 Fed Cornered by Inflation Talk

06:38 Symbolic Hike and Market Fallout

10:11 Fiscal Policy and Real Inflation

21:31 Bond Yields Surge and Trump Reacts

32:28 Import Cold Turkey Fallout

33:40 Tariffs And China Surplus

35:08 Empty Shelves Economic Crash

36:18 Five Thousand Dollar Dividend

44:30 Bonds For Bombs And Meme Coins

53:32 Crypto Politics Gold Outlook Farewell

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Fox dropped Peter for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI proved it. Now an 88% rate hike, 19-year-high yields, and $100 oil.

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Peter got dropped from Fox News for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI just proved him right.

Last December Peter went on Fox News and said prices were still rising and the rate of increase would accelerate. Trump called him a Trump hater; Fox stopped booking him. Today's CPI: up 0.4% for August, 3.4% year over year, core hotter than expected, PPI running 5.4%, oil back over $100. Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. Everything he said would happen has happened, while the president told a Republican convention this week that prices are "rapidly going down."

Markets now put 88% odds on a rate hike next week, and Peter says the Fed has backed itself into a corner: Warsh has talked tough for so long that not hiking ends the Fed's credibility. But a symbolic 25 basis points "ain't gonna cut it" when inflation is rising faster than rates. The bond market already knows. The 10-year hit 4.97%, a 19-year high, the 30-year 5.35%, and Peter argues we're only six years into a bear market where 5% is nowhere near the top, with $40 trillion of debt to refinance. He also takes apart Trump's $5,000 "dividend" (a bribe paid from $4 trillion of new debt), calls gold dips a gift, and says Bitcoin's chart projects to zero.

Chapters:

00:00 Fox News Inflation Call

00:34 9/11 Reflections and Liberty

05:27 CPI Report and Fed Odds

14:16 Symbolic Hike Won’t Work

36:49 Metals and Bitcoin Check

37:51 Bitcoin Head and Shoulders

39:24 Why a Midterm Convention

44:55 The 5000 Dividend Claim

57:17 Inflation Jobs and Wrap Up

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Oil near $100, copper at a record, and the Fed still says 2%. Why the bond market breaks before the stock market does.

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Oil near $100, copper at a record, and 65 straight months above 2%. Peter says the bond market breaks first.

Brent touched $99.50 and copper hit an all-time high, and Peter's point is that the Fed's 2% target was already unreachable when oil was falling. Sixty-five months above target, and now the inputs are rising again. PPI Thursday and CPI Friday could both come in hot, and if they do, the damage shows up in bonds before it shows up in stocks. The market is pricing roughly 60% odds of a hike next week. Peter doesn't think the Fed will do it, and thinks 25 basis points wouldn't matter if it did, since the market would immediately start pricing the next one.

The rest is the bill coming due elsewhere. China just posted a record trade surplus, with August exports up 25% year over year and exports to the US up 34%, which is what happens when tariffs price Americans out of the best deal rather than moving production home. Peter got the receipt himself: the courier billed him for the tariff, then billed him again to process it. Meanwhile the hyperscalers that used to park cash in Treasuries are borrowing from the same pool the government needs, at a moment when interest costs already run $1.2 trillion a year.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro

00:39 War Shock Fuels Commodities

02:15 Copper vs Gold Real Money

06:11 Iran War Drags On

21:31 Tariffs and Trade War Fallout

30:18 Producers vs Consumers

31:50 Tariffs Shift Trade

35:52 Why Trade Wars Fail

43:37 Nickels Beat Treasuries

50:59 Fed, Inflation, and Wrap-Up

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Peter Schiff on the fake jobs beat, Trump's trade ultimatum, yields at 2007 highs, a 162% tariff bill, and why the Fed is the last buyer.

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The government says 162,000 jobs is a boom. Peter Schiff says it's a miss, and the bond market agrees.

The August jobs report came in at 162,000 against a 55,000 consensus, and Peter Schiff walks through why the number is worse than it looks. The birth-death model supplied 74,000 of those jobs, 45% of the total, on the assumption that new businesses were hiring. More than a third of the rest were waiters and bartenders. JOLTS and ADP both pointed the other way, last month was revised down, and real wages are falling. Kevin Hassett called it a boom; by most measures the economy is weaker than the day Trump took over.

Then Trump raised the stakes. He declared that America deserves the lowest interest rates in the world, then threatened to terminate all trade with any surplus country if the Fed doesn't cut. Peter's answer: the United States has never been a worse credit risk than it is right now. The 10-year hit 4.81% and the 30-year 5.28%, the highest since 2007. Japan has sold its Treasury holdings down from $1.3 trillion to $1.1 trillion, everyone who was buying is now selling, and the Fed will end up the buyer of last resort, which means inflation.

Peter also covers the week's real data: the July trade deficit at $88.6 billion, the biggest since March 2025; the $283 part that cost him 162% of the tariff once FedEx added its fee; diesel at a record above $5.80; Lutnick on semiconductors and Bastiat's candlemakers; Waller's rate comments sending gold back above $4,400; and an update on TGold's coming gold debit and credit cards.

Chapters:

00:00 No Buyers Left

00:29 Back In Puerto Rico

00:47 Jobs Report Miss

05:36 Real Wages Falling

06:09 Waiters And Bartenders

08:00 JOLTS ADP Contradiction

09:10 Birth Death Model

10:23 Hassett Boom Claim

13:27 Trump Rate Demands

15:20 Worst Credit Risk Ever

17:24 Trump Trade Ultimatum

24:07 Bessent Kudlow Interview

27:27 Yields Hit 2007 Highs

28:24 Yen And Japan Selling

31:14 Oil Diesel Record

33:15 Stocks Gold Silver

39:16 Trade Deficit Widens

42:02 My 162% Tariff Bill

45:37 Lutnick Semiconductors

48:33 Bastiat Candlemakers

51:08 Waller Rate Comments

53:39 Gold Pullback Gift

54:03 TGold Cards Update

1:00:24 Bitcoin And EuroPac

1:02:12 Labor Day Sign Off

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Warsh talks tough, buybacks double, a military option surfaces, gold falls $140, and boat prices collapse 50%.

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The Treasury doubled its bond buybacks this week. Then the talk turned to a military option for yields.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spent his most anticipated speech of the year talking tough about inflation, and Peter Schiff explains why none of it matters. Warsh accepted responsibility for 65 straight months above the 2% target, then never once mentioned the $40 trillion national debt or the Treasury intervention running underneath him. Money supply is expanding at roughly 6% annualized since he took the job. He is talking about putting out the fire while pouring the gasoline.

Underneath the speech, the policy escalated. Treasury buybacks already doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion, with roughly a trillion in the general fund available to extend them, shortening the average maturity of the debt and leaving the government more exposed to the rate hikes markets are now pricing. And in a Fox News interview on that same intervention, a military option for lowering bond yields was raised.

Peter also covers the week's real data: gold down $140, silver reversing from nearly $71, a Chicago PMI collapse to 47.1 that was the biggest downside miss in eleven years, and a boat market where prices have fallen 50% and lenders are taking the keys, a Fed-made boom and bust he argues housing is about to repeat.

Chapters:

00:00 Inflation Firestorm

00:37 Boatcast Setup

01:02 Warsh Speech Breakdown

04:12 Debt And Twist Ignored

08:10 Forward Guidance Critique

11:19 Dual Mandate Tradeoffs

12:46 Money Supply Matters

13:56 Hawkish Talk And Markets

18:50 Trump Military Option

20:01 Canada Tariffs Fallout

27:53 Market Wrap Gold Bitcoin

31:46 Strategy Dilution Spiral

32:42 Dollar Yen Bonds Warning

34:11 Manufacturing Digital Shift

39:03 Boating Bubble Bust

45:28 Boat Costs Force Selling

48:13 West Marine Bankruptcy

53:02 Buyer Market Repos Risk

56:30 Boat Ownership Reality

57:09 Closing Politics Plug

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Peter Schiff breaks down the Treasury's panic move to rescue the bond market, the $40 trillion debt milestone, and gold's $185 reversal day.

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The Treasury just doubled its bond buybacks. Peter Schiff says that's the government admitting the bond market is broken.

On the same day the national debt topped $40 trillion, the Treasury announced it is doubling its long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion... buying the bonds everybody else is selling, and funding it by issuing more short-term debt. Peter calls it what it is: a panic move, a Hail Mary to suppress rising yields after the 30-year hit 5.3%, its highest in over 19 years. Refinancing debt locked in at a 3.44% average coupon with 4% T-bills makes no financial sense, which is exactly why it's happening... the government is scared, not stupid.

The market rendered its verdict immediately. Gold reversed off a $185 rally to close above $4,500, silver cleared $66, and the miners surged 8-12%, while hawkish FOMC minutes were shrugged off entirely. Peter explains why this Treasury version of Operation Twist forces the Fed to follow with real QE... a program that will have to dwarf 2008's... why Bitcoin's pop above $70,000 is built on hope, and why the housing data shows the panic is justified.

Chapters:

00:00 Treasury Panic Move

01:05 Bond Yields Hit New Highs

02:58 Debt Explosion Politics

07:00 Treasury Buyback Twist

10:23 QE Next And Fed Cornered

16:04 Hawkish Minutes Gold Surge

24:03 Markets React Unevenly

24:20 Dollar Drops Oil Jumps

25:08 Fed Inflation Bind

26:30 Debt Era Comparison

27:40 Jobs Data Media Spin

29:17 Bitcoin Versus Metals

31:19 Housing Slump Mortgages

33:59 Tariffs Canada Trade

37:50 Buybacks Won't Work

42:26 QE Addiction Ahead

44:34 Boat Update Farewell

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Peter Schiff on plunging retail sales, sticky inflation, the Fed's stealth QE, and why the world is now leaving the dollar standard.

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Retail sales just plunged, producer prices are still rising, and the Fed is quietly expanding its balance sheet again.

The July data tells the story the markets keep ignoring. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent, the biggest drop in over a year, and since those numbers are not adjusted for inflation, real spending fell even further. Consumer sentiment sank to 51 as households braced for 4.3 percent inflation, more than double the Fed's 2 percent target. Producer prices rose 4.7 percent year over year, and instead of rallying on the weak data, the bond market sold off to its lowest weekly close of the year, with the 30-year at 5.27 percent. Meanwhile the Fed expanded its balance sheet by more than 21 billion dollars in two weeks, with the national debt about 80 billion dollars away from 40 trillion.

Peter marks 55 years since Nixon closed the gold window and calls it what it was: a 100 percent default on America's creditors. His father Irwin testified against removing gold backing in 1968, and the 1970s proved him right. Now the sequel is underway. The world is going off the dollar standard the way America went off gold, and the next leg down in the American standard of living has already started. Gold near 4,400 dollars and silver above 66 are the market's verdict.

Chapters:

00:00 Middle Class Squeeze

01:01 PPI Breakdown

04:08 Fed Balance Sheet Surge

05:23 Stagflation Signals

08:28 Bond Market Warning

11:39 Greenspan and 1987 Echoes

14:48 Stocks vs Bonds Diverge

15:33 Gold Shines Bitcoin Slips

18:16 Bitcoin Bear Case

21:08 Iran Sanctions and Oil

26:30 Nixon Gold Standard Legacy

28:52 Inflation Math Reality

29:30 Video Plug Fiat Failure

30:19 Electric Catamaran Tour

34:30 Cruising Plans Tax Credit

37:02 Gold Standard Break Explained

48:09 Dollar Standard Ending

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A record $432B July deficit, $40 trillion in debt days away, gold above $4,400... last week's fireworks were just the opening act.

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The CPI came in tame. Hours later the Treasury reported a $432 billion July deficit... the worst single month in US history.

Peter breaks down why the benign 0.1% July CPI is an accounting illusion: the BLS compares monthly averages, so June's oil collapse masked July's crude rebound, and August is set up to run hot. The real inflation news came later that day from the Treasury: a record $432 billion July deficit, $1.8 trillion in just ten months, and a national debt now less than $150 billion from $40 trillion. Bigger deficits mean more pressure on the Fed to choose inflation, which is exactly why the bond market refused to rally on the "good" CPI number.

Gold holds above $4,400 and silver above $65 as heavy Asian buying signals the de-dollarization trade is back on, while Bitcoin sits dead at $63,500 and misses the entire rally. Peter also covers the yen back above 159 and the Fed's swap-line backdoor QE for Japan, both parties drifting left after the latest primaries, Trump family corruption from Truth Social premium access to Barron's $150 million, and the Iran endgame: no deal, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and a president claiming victory in a war America clearly lost.

Chapters:

00:00 Inflation Signals Not Prices

01:22 CPI Print And Market Bets

04:24 CPI Math Masks Energy Surge

10:37 Deficits The Real Inflation Driver

19:54 Gold Surge Debt And Yen QE

31:09 Radical Left Wins Primaries

32:00 Both Parties Shift Left

34:17 Trump Corruption Claims

37:51 Bitcoin Stalls vs Gold

44:13 Iran War Reality Check

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Peter Schiff breaks down July's negative jobs report, Japan's yen crisis, and the Fed's stealth QE bailout as gold and silver surge.

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Recording from his boat in Rhode Island, Peter Schiff covers a week that vindicated his forecasts. The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, with prior months revised down another 105,000 and labor force participation falling to 61.4%, a level unseen outside COVID lockdowns in 50 years. Full-time jobs have declined in six of the last seven months while wages lag inflation, confirming the stagflation Peter has long warned about. The bigger story is Japan: with the yen at a 40-year low and JGB yields at record highs, the US executed its first yen intervention since 1998, roughly ten times larger, using euros instead of dollars and blindsiding the ECB. The Fed also took Japan's Treasuries via repo and printed the dollars, a stealth form of quantitative easing that contradicts its inflation-fighting rhetoric. Markets got the message: gold jumped 7.8% to 4,341, silver surged 12.3% to 63.46 after holding above the old $50 ceiling, and GDX rocketed 22% in one week, all far outpacing Bitcoin's 3.7% gain. Peter argues the intervention is just the beginning, the Fed will not hike before the midterms, and a currency and sovereign debt crisis is approaching. He urges listeners to prepare with gold, silver, miners, and foreign stocks, and to understand the coming crisis is caused by government, not capitalism.

Chapters:

00:00 Fed Japan Bond Backstop

01:11 Back At Sea Intro

01:59 Week Ahead Jobs Japan

03:23 Stocks Metals Surge

06:23 Bitcoin Strategy Warning

09:15 Bonds Dollar Fed Odds

14:00 July Jobs Shock

15:33 Revisions Participation Drop

19:51 Wages Inflation Stagflation

24:09 Trump Ballroom Rant

26:49 Japan Crisis Tease

29:24 Japan Yen Breakdown

31:30 Debt Trap And Rates

32:23 Treasury Selling Threat

34:35 Fed And BOJ Coordination

36:08 Swap Line QE Explained

41:15 Euro Intervention Twist

44:29 Inflation Signals And Metals

47:51 Storm Warning Ahead

49:18 Blame Government Not Markets

52:07 Prepare And Spread The Word

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The Fed talked tough and did nothing. The 30-year hit a 20-year high. The Dow fell 1,100 points. Gold was the only thing left standing.

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The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly where they were before Kevin Warsh took over, despite a 30% market-priced chance of a hike and three FOMC members dissenting in favor of one. Peter Schiff breaks down a press conference where Warsh declared "no tolerance" for inflation above 2% while doing nothing about it, hiding behind the excuse that the Fed "doesn't have a magic wand." Nobody asked for magic, just for the Fed to use the tools it actually has: higher rates, a smaller balance sheet, slower money supply growth. Warsh delivered none of them, and Schiff argues he made the same choice as his predecessors. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed chose it again.

The markets rendered their verdict immediately. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.22%, its highest in roughly 20 years, the Dow fell 2.2% or about 1,100 points to close on the lows, and the Nasdaq 100 is now down over 3% on the week as the air keeps coming out of the AI bubble, with Meta down 10% after missing earnings and SanDisk off 30% in three days. Gold told the real story: it closed up $40 at 4,070 and never broke 4,000, because rising yields driven by a loss of confidence in the Fed are bullish for gold, not bearish. Schiff calls gold the last safe haven standing. He also covers consumer confidence at a five-year low, a $101.5 billion June trade deficit proving the tariffs accomplished nothing, and why Mamdani's government-run grocery stores will empty shelves, bankrupt private grocers in the poorest neighborhoods, and recreate Soviet bread lines in New York City.

Chapters:

00:00 Debt Bubble Reality

00:37 Fed Holds Rates Steady

03:34 Two Percent Target Doubts

16:05 Q&A Exposes Inaction

27:38 Markets React Bonds Stocks Gold

31:45 Yields and Gold Misread

35:02 Gold Safe Haven Case

37:40 Fed Fallout and Data

43:12 NYC Government Grocers

55:42 Capitalism and Wrap Up

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The yen just hit a 40-year low and Japan is trapped. Whether they hike or freeze, it ends the same way: the pin that pricks our bubble.

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Investors are far too complacent about risks that are now hiding in plain sight. The AI trade cracked this week: Alphabet fell 10% after announcing even higher CapEx, Oracle is down 41% on the year, Meta and Amazon fell, and Microsoft is nearly in a bear market. SpaceX now trades 49% below its post-IPO high with its float set to jump from 5% to 40% by year end, and Tesla dropped 18%, costing Elon Musk nearly $100 billion in a week. Peter Schiff compares the roughly three-quarters of a trillion dollars in annual AI CapEx to the dot-com build-out, where the early favorites went bankrupt and took their vendors down with them.

The bigger danger is Japan. The yen fell to a 40-year low against the dollar, the 30-year JGB yield hit an all-time high near 4%, and with debt above 200% of GDP and a policy rate still at just 1%, Japan is trapped. Whether the Bank of Japan finally hikes aggressively or stays timid, the result spills into the United States, potentially forcing the world's largest holder of US Treasuries to dump its $1.1 trillion position. Schiff calls Japan the pin that pricks the far bigger US bubble. Meanwhile the US 30-year yield hit a 20-year high of 5.16% on more than four times the debt of 2006, oil is up 30% in July guaranteeing a hotter CPI, and gold rose on the week even as bonds and stocks fell, with the miners signaling a bottom. He closes on why record-low jobless claims are meaningless in a gig economy and why Trump's new slave-labor tariffs are an unconstitutional tax on Americans.

Chapters:

00:00 Japan Sparks US Crisis

00:41 AI CapEx Reality Check

07:51 AI Bubble Parallels

13:03 Gold Miners Rebound

19:17 Oil Bonds Warning Signs

32:16 Japan Debt Rate Trap

34:36 Weak Yen Trade Deficits

37:22 Japan Creditor Status Slips

41:22 Two Japan Crisis Paths

44:26 US Vulnerability Dominoes

45:21 Unemployment Claims Hype

47:20 Why Claims Mislead

51:37 New Tariffs Legal Workaround

59:03 Wrap Up Subscribe Call

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Warsh admitted monetary policy caused inflation. Bessent thinks silver certificates still redeem at Fort Knox. And import prices are up 7.1%.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox viewers that old silver and gold certificates can still be redeemed at Fort Knox. Gold certificates were repudiated in 1933 and silver certificates in 1968. Peter Schiff argues that if the man who signs the currency does not know basic monetary history, there is no reason to trust his assurance that the gold in Fort Knox is all there.

Markets confirmed the AI bubble is deflating. SpaceX fell 13.25% on the week to close below $124, under its $135 IPO price, and anyone who bought the post-IPO high near $225 is down 45%. Only about 5% of the company trades today, but lockups expire through year end and take the float to roughly 40%, an eightfold increase in supply. Gold closed at $4,017 and silver at $55.83, which Schiff calls a head fake created by the false narrative that war is bad for gold.

The honest inflation numbers tell a different story than the CPI: import prices are up 7.1% year over year and export prices are up 10.2%, against a reported 3.5%. Kevin Warsh admitted in Senate testimony that monetary policy caused the inflation, then offered a plan that amounts to talking about it while the Fed's balance sheet grew another $7.4 billion. Schiff also covers Trump selling paid early access to market-moving posts and explosive new FOIA emails showing Euro Pacific Bank was shut down for publicity, with the Australian Tax Office driving the operation to protect a journalist facing his defamation suit.

Chapters:

00:00 Trump Posts Paywall

01:23 Market Week Wrap

07:42 Gold Silver War

09:52 Inflation Data Reality

23:30 Warsh Hearing Grifts

37:59 AI Jobs and Progress

40:22 Trump Post and Fox Fallout

44:05 FOIA Trail and Censorship Claims

50:31 Nine Fraud Bank Shutdown Emails

57:07 Operation Atlantis PR Exposed

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In 1914 the Fed ran on 40 people and no computers. Today it takes 23,000. Fire them all and let AI do it... it can't do any worse.

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Kevin Warsh delivered his first congressional testimony as Fed Chair, and Peter Schiff breaks down a hearing where everyone discussed inflation while misdefining the term and ignoring their own role in causing it. June CPI came in at -0.4% versus the expected -0.1%, dropping year-over-year inflation to 3.5% — but the entire decline came from a temporary oil price drop that is already reversing as the Iran war reignites and oil climbs back 20% in July. Bond yields tell the real story: the 30-year is back near 5.1% and the 10-year near 4.6%, erasing nearly the entire post-CPI rally.

Schiff's biggest revelation from the hearing: the Fed employs 23,000 people to do a job that required just 40 when it opened in 1914 — with no computers — and argues the entire institution could be replaced by a single AI or abolished outright. He dismantles Warsh's claim of "regime change" at the Fed as being as fake as regime change in Iran, exposes the redefinition of "price stability" to mean prices that rise just slowly enough that people stop complaining, and shows how the 2% target was always a lie invented to justify inflation. He covers Warsh admitting inflation is a tax while planning to keep levying it, the court throwing out Trump's self-negotiated IRS settlement that granted his family immunity, and the AI CapEx bubble turning tech's biggest cash generators into massive borrowers that will break the bond market.

Chapters:

00:00 AI Spending Arms Race

01:08 Markets Brace for CPI

06:07 CPI Surprise and Gold Whipsaw

07:34 Oil Driven Inflation Mirage

11:40 What Inflation Really Means

14:11 Congress and Fed Share Blame

17:58 Fed Headcount Shock

22:32 Two Percent Target Myth

27:05 Regime Change and Price Stability

33:40 Day One Recap Continues

34:09 Grow My X Account

35:13 Congress Inflation Theater

36:06 Trump Grift Claims

37:30 IRS Settlement Outrage

39:51 Rates Versus Balance Sheet

41:08 Who Wins Low Rates

43:46 Fed And Black Workers

49:09 AI Bubble Warning

51:15 Hyperscalers Debt Spiral

55:38 Bond Market Breaking Point

58:16 Strategy Stock Dilution

01:00:30 Bitcoin Levels And Regrets

01:01:30 Subscribe And Sign Off

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A new housing law just passed that guarantees prices go higher. Bonds are breaking. And every bank bullish on Bitcoin refuses to buy Stretch.

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The Iran peace deal collapsed and the war is back on, yet US stock markets barely reacted — the AI bubble powering tech kept the S&P and Nasdaq positive while gold and silver sold off, with gold closing at $4,019 and silver falling 3.5% below $60. Bond yields climbed back to cycle highs with the 10-year at 4.56% and the 30-year at 5.06%, and Peter Schiff sees a major breakdown ahead that will hit stocks, housing, and crypto simultaneously.

The 21st Century Road to Housing Bill became law without Trump's signature, and Schiff argues it will make housing worse, not better. Nine decades of government housing policy — every program sold as making homes more affordable — have produced the least affordable housing in American history, because subsidizing demand raises prices and the money ends up in sellers' pockets. Trump has openly said he wants home prices to rise, in the middle of an affordability crisis. Meanwhile SpaceX fell 36% from its highs in under two weeks with every open-market buyer underwater and lockup expirations still ahead. Every Wall Street firm covering Bitcoin is bullish — Citi at $82K, Standard Chartered at $100K, Bernstein at $150K, JP Morgan at $170K — yet not one is buying Stretch at $87.48, where a 13.7% yield proves the market doesn't believe Bitcoin can appreciate 12% a year. They don't believe their own forecasts.

Chapters:

00:00 Markets Defy Bad News

01:38 War Tensions and Metals

05:11 Bond Yields Warning Signs

06:57 AI Bubble and IPO Mania

11:42 Bitcoin Hype and Wall Street

17:07 Dollar Flat Oil Rising

18:09 Housing Bill Political Fight

19:54 Affordability Crisis Explained

24:16 How Subsidies Inflate Prices

32:03 Bubble Collateral Trap

32:58 Jobs Report Media Spin

34:40 Housing Supply Not Subsidies

37:20 Save America Act Debate

41:25 Voting Rights Republic Critique

52:49 Democracy Incentives Corruption

57:12 Two Party No Choice

58:42 Podcast Wrap Up

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Iran deal dead. DOGE dead. Saylor selling at a loss. Medieval serfs kept more of their income than you do. I warned you about all of it.

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The Iran peace deal collapsed and the war is back on, with Trump acknowledging he was "two weeks from a depression" when he agreed to the MOU — a confession Peter Schiff says handed Iran all the leverage. Oil jumped 6% to $75, but the real story is bond yields: the 10-year hit 4.58% and the 30-year 5.07% — nearly at cycle highs despite oil being 25% below its peak, proving the debt, not the war, is driving yields higher.

FOMC minutes revealed that 9 of 13 members now support rate hikes after zero did just 90 days ago — theatrics Schiff says Warsh is orchestrating to appear hawkish without ever delivering. The May goods trade deficit exploded to $106.5 billion despite Trump's tariffs, continuing the pattern from his first term. DOGE was officially shut down with zero spending cuts achieved. Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin at a $15,000 per coin loss while Stretch sank to $86, and Trump's new savings accounts give kids $1,000 in borrowed money they'll repay through inflation. Schiff closes by noting that medieval serfs kept 75% of their output — more than the average American keeps today — making modern taxpayers lower in status than feudal peasants.

Chapters:

00:00 Freedom Versus Slavery

00:46 Iran Deal Collapses

05:04 Markets React to War

07:15 Oil Bonds and AI Bubble

16:17 Fed Minutes Rate Hike Theater

21:28 Tariffs Inflation Excuses

26:10 Real Rates and Debt Trap

27:41 Trade Deficit Reality Check

30:03 AI Threat to Services Surplus

32:32 Democracy Deficits and Rights

34:59 Rights And Healthcare

36:28 Housing And Free Markets

40:08 Tax Cuts And Wealth Theft

45:55 Taxes And Modern Slavery

48:25 DOGE Shutdown And Bitcoin Crash

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Saylor authorized $1.25B in Bitcoin sales. 514K full-time jobs vanished. Trump made $2.2B selling access. 250 years later, we need another revolution.

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The June jobs report came in at 57,000 — half of the lowest estimate — with May revised down from 172,000 to 129,000. Full-time employment collapsed by 514,000 in a single month, bringing total full-time job losses since Trump took office to 2.24 million. The labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5% as 700,000 workers simply gave up, and manufacturing has lost 73,000 jobs despite Trump's tariff promises.

Michael Saylor officially surrendered the "never sell Bitcoin" thesis, establishing a "Bitcoin monetization fund" authorizing up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to maintain dollar reserves, buy back common stock, and repurchase Stretch preferreds trading at $87.80. He raised the Stretch dividend to 12% with mandatory increases ahead. Peter Schiff argues this transforms Strategy from the market's biggest buyer into its biggest seller, removing the bid that underpinned Bitcoin's price. Trump's financial disclosure revealed $2.2 billion in income — $1.4 billion from meme coins and tokens alone — while Mar-a-Lago membership hit $1 million and the Executive Club charges $500,000 for a restaurant seat next to cabinet members. Peter closes with a 250th Independence Day reflection, arguing Americans today face more tyranny than the colonists ever did under King George, and that the revolution we need now must happen at the ballot box.

Chapters:

00:00 Holiday Intro and July 4th Tease

00:37 Jobs Report Shock and Revisions

03:43 Full-Time Jobs Slide and Tariff Reality

07:29 Fed Rate Hike Theater and Gold Bounce

16:28 Bitcoin Strategy Turns Seller

29:57 Meme Coins as Bribes

31:09 Paying for Trump Access

34:26 Debt Gimmicks and Deficits

35:38 Independence Day and Founding Ideals

45:45 Modern Tyranny and Peaceful Revolution

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Stretch hit $71 intraday. Strategy down 85% from peak. The first lawsuit just landed. And CNBC has gone completely silent.

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The Strategy death spiral accelerated dramatically this week. Stretch preferred stock plunged 18% to close at $79 after hitting an intraday low of $71 — a 29% loss from par that wiped out more than two years of dividend income in weeks. Strategy common stock crashed 30% in a single week and is now down 85% from its peak, trading at a massive discount to its Bitcoin NAV. The first class action lawsuit was filed against Strategy, and Schiff expects tens of billions in total legal liability from both Stretch and common equity holders.

Saylor continued selling common stock to buy Bitcoin despite each purchase destroying shareholder value — diluting Bitcoin per share at the current discount. Schiff argues this is done solely to maintain the illusion that Strategy is still a buyer, propping up Bitcoin's price at shareholders' expense. Bitcoin fell 8.3% to below $60,000 but is only the beginning — with Strategy sidelined as a buyer and ETF holders sitting on losses, there is no marginal buyer left. Gold traded below $4,000 and silver dropped to $56 intraday before recovering, but Schiff sees this as the likely bottom of the correction and the buying opportunity of the cycle. Alan Greenspan died at 100, and Schiff eulogized him as the architect of modern monetary inflation who proved that even a gold bug will choose inflation when given the power of the printing press.

Chapters:

00:00 Death Spiral Warning

01:50 Stretch Ponzi Explained

09:36 Why It Must Collapse

18:41 This Week’s Crash Data

28:57 Lawsuits and Market Fallout

33:14 Gold and Silver Bottoming

34:43 Fed Hype and Inflation Reality

39:11 Greenspan Legacy and Gold Signal

43:21 Dump Crypto Buy Metals

52:43 Ford Wage Myth and Wrap Up

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