DUE FOR A WIN? Why We See Patterns in Randomness

If something has happened several times in a row, do we start believing it’s bound to change?

In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the Gambler’s Fallacy — the mistaken belief that past outcomes influence what will happen next in situations where each event is independent. We look at why random patterns can feel meaningful, and how our minds search for balance even when chance has no memory.

But when does spotting a pattern become believing in one that isn’t there? Discover how the Gambler’s Fallacy can distort our expectations, influence our decisions, and reveal why understanding probability is harder than it seems.

Studies and links:

The Gambler’s and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theories and Applications | Matthew Rabin and Dimitri Vayanos | The Review of Economic Studies https://rabin.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7721/files/rabin/files/ghfta_resf.pdf

Why do we think a random event is more or less likely to occur if it happened several times in the past? | The Decision Lab https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/gamblers-fallacy

The Gambler’s Fallacy: What It Is And How To Overcome It | Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/brycehoffman/2024/08/27/the-gamblers-fallacy-what-it-is-and-how-to-overcome-it/