SHOW / EPISODE

Tesla (TSLA): Splitting a $100B Chip Fab Bill with SpaceX [Q3 2026]

10m | Oct 22, 2026

Tesla’s Q3 2026 delivered a genuine software-driven margin recovery, even as management casually unveiled plans for a $100B semiconductor fab with an undecided SpaceX cost split.

In ~10 minutes:

- 🚗 North American FSD paid attach rates topping 75% at delivery.

- 🔋 How Supreme Court IEEPA tariff refunds inflated Energy margins to 33.1%.

- 🏭 Cutting 2026 CapEx to $20B while securing a $30B credit facility.

- 🚀 SpaceX mark-to-market swings and unquantified Terafab cost-sharing.

- 🤖 Why designing squishy, self-repairing fingers delays Optimus to late 2027.


While GAAP net income fell 29% sequentially due to a SpaceX paper loss, non-GAAP EPS jumped 45% to $0.48 and free cash flow swung back to $1.53B. We unpack the showroom shift toward "FSD test drives" and the governance questions around ordering chip fab machinery alongside SpaceX before agreeing on who pays the bill.


Company: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) | Q3 FY2026

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